LLZ

How in the world is AA going to maintain the current service level (which can be almost nothing on many flights now) with these changes?

We've now gone from increased upgrade prices with less service, to a certain percentage (what...5%) of elites getting free upgrades, and the rest of them paying at least 38% less money for them.

AA is still not anywhere near the financial state they wish to be in, so it just seems something is going to have to give. You could make an argument that the reduced price is going to increase upgrade purchases, but really, how many domestic flights have you been on where there were empty F seats? I'm at 45k already this year and I haven't been on one that had an empty F seat.

Is F soon going to look like CO and DL(sandwiches to HNL in F)? I realize their biggest competitor is UA and so far UA's domestic F is comparable to AA's, but with better (well, most of the time) service from the FAs.

Granted UA's condition makes AA look like a model business, but neither one of them are in the black...how long can they keep this up without seriously downgrading the cabin?

martin33

I understand the concerns, but not the numbers underlying them.

EXP's aren't anywhere near 5% of elites, more like 0.5%, 1% tops-- even fewer if you factor in the "jet set" types who fly little domestically. $40 to $25 is a 38% decrease, but not really because most heavy users stocked up at the $25 and/or $31.25 price level and are only now running out. I suspect AA got a huge revenue infusion from that stocking up, and if anything revenues from sticker sales have been way way down at $40.

I'm on flights with un-taken F seats fairly often, though I have no idea how many elites are in back on them...

I think there stands a reasonable chance that this set of changes increases overall AA revenue and profits [if only through reduced EXP trip-diversions post-100k], and perhaps even upgrade revenue on its own. That said, I'm a realist-- if it proves not to be the case, we'll either have a re-tightening of the rules or perhaps the further service downgrades you posit...


[This message has been edited by martin33 (edited Feb 23, 2004).]

pauleeepaul

As I have previously posted, this change does not say much about AA's ability to differentiate itself and actually sell J and F fares in stickerland. But, the impact of capturing more of the post 100k EXP business is an unknown- could be a big number. Either way let's see if there are any reductions in domestic F service.

Crazy4Birds

American will now get a significant amount of post-100K business from me later in the year---business that otherwise would have gone to DL, which, for me,in some cases has more convenient flights. So far this year, I've actually had better service in F on the trans-cons that last year----let's hope it's a trend!

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LAX; AA EXP/2.4 MM/Lifetime Plat

Robert Leach

As one who moved about 50% of my travel from DL to AA in 2003, this move has convinced me of the absolute need to make EXP in 2004. I doubt that I am alone. Therefore, I think the desired effect of the change is to provide an even greater incentive for the 50,000-75,000 mile a year flyer to assign even more flying to AA and go for the EXP level.

I think the concern over an inevitable decline in the F product quality is a real one, but hopefully AA doesn't have the same management mentality as Delta and will therefore preserve the quality of the product.

ByrdluvsAWACO

Why do I have this chilling feeling that the dAArk forces within AA are conspiring to bring back EXP by points only.

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"Rows 50 and above are business seats for those with infants" - gfowler-ord-1k
SkyTeam - "The whatever's leftover Alliance"

fredmartens

It wouldn't bother me if they did, as long as it came with an upgrade to the "first class" experience, which, IMHO, has degraded considerably in the past 3 years (not to mention since deregulation). Maybe this will help to suppress some of the trash that has been allowed access to the front cabin so easily on several flights that I've been on in the past year or so. First class needs to return to just that..

CharlesMD

LLZ, I hope we still get omeletes! By the way, how was your trip to Japan? Did you take any pictures of the Japanese meal selection? I am thinking of flying to Tokyo this summer. Any suggestions on where you stayed and what to do?

Take care!