georgequinones

With most airlines reducing their fleet sizes.

What will happend to award availabily?

How much will price go up?

My personal opinion is prices will go up considerably maybe double from last year.

Awards will pretty much vanish and award levels will have to up to match prices.

UKCatsHoopsFan

I would imagine that Delta would/will ground some of their fleet and reduce some of their routes first. As the price of oil continues to rise, I would certainly expect paid seat ineventory to decrease to lighten the load both figuratively and in practice.

Global_Hi_Flyer

Price has already gone up a lot - up to 3 times as much. I predict much higher by the winter. Cheap mileage runs are history.... the airlines will really get to test price-elasticity of their product.

I also think that top-tier status is going to be critical for the business traveler on an airline with deep coverage (such as DL/NW, UA or AA). I'd estimate that capacity will get cut back so much that the "guaranteed seat" benefit of many top-tier programs will actually be useful.....

sxf24

I don't expect load factors to continue growing and seats, in general, to be any harder to come by. With higher ticket prices, demand should fall dramatically.

DLdweeb

I agree. The loads on the last few flights I have been on have been significantly lower. I think the higher fares and slowing economy are having an effect.

MikeMpls

Everything is cyclical and airline travel is a competitive business with narrow margins. When the dollar & the economy recover, it will be business as usual, although a few players may be missing or changed.

The trend to LCC's & cheap tickets will continue over the long run. In the short run, if you can't afford to pay through the nose, you will need to buy carefully and explore new alternatives.

Robert Leach

It's going to be interesting. If the carriers maintain discipline and do cut capacity, then averaage fares will rise and the number of discount seats available will be significantly reduced.

Where this will really impact leisure travelers, IMO, is during holidays. The times when everybody who wanted to fly somewhere for a holiday weekend and do it cheaply will be over -- IF capacity cuts occur as planned.

And, of course, if fewer people are flying, it means lower hotel occupancy, so I would expect hotel rates to come down as well -- which means you might pay $200 more for airfare, but save that on hotel costs.

I am really curious to see what happens in Las Vegas in this regard. It seems like the number of offers coming from Vegas the last couple of months have increased significantly. I am nowhere near a "roller" yet hardly a month goes by now that I don't get a couple of "three free nights" offers from Vegas hotels, and it likely will only get better. (Not to mention how the price of gas will impact those driving to Vegas from LA).

hfly

It is cyclical, so much so that more LCC's will go bust and the successful ones will take on more trappings of full service carriers, fuel prices will lower, they'll expand again, they'll be good times for awhile and then it will all go horribly wrong again.

lofly

What everyone has stated in very much true, about the current airline situation.

My concern would be some Congressperson stepping in.

Since about 1980, we've had deregulated airline travel. We could be heading for regulated airline travel.

Deregulation has been wonderful for the consumer (cheap fares, many new routes, and new benefits all around).

I don't think regulations would solve the problem, but it would eliminate a lot of competition, and make it more expensive, and difficult for the consumer.

Let the fun begin.

pbarnette

I'm still waiting for the first legacy to basically throw in the towel in the domestic market. I say, just focus on the top 20-30 markets, expand internationally, and let WN have the domestic market.

silverthief2

Interesting observation. I'm also getting more of these offers than usual, from Vegas hotels as well as one in Dallas that all seem to be really hurting for business.

I also wonder about the impact of grounding planes and rising fares on airport expansions. Several airports (including RDU) are finishing major upgrades, and I'm just glad that the timing allowed RDU's new terminal to go forward, because cities that are in the early planning stages of such projects are going to have a much harder time justifying expansion.

sxf24

Oil prices will never return to the prior levels, regardless of the value of the dollar. Hopefully, the days of dirt price tickets and MR are over.

hfly

Which prior levels? No they won't be hitting $10 again, bt in 2-4 years time it is quite feasible that they could be back in the $40-60 range. Recession does wonders for conservation, as well as do high prices. They also encourage alternative fuels. In the next few years a LOT of new oil is coming onstream and that too will temper prices. When you consider that at least a quarter of the current runup is due to pure speculation, and another quarter to a weakened dollar, this is a quite realistic expectation. Things are irrational at the moment..........a Nigerian fires a rifle at a pipeline and oil jumps $6 a barrel. Scottish pipeline workers strike for 10 hours and it jumps $12 in two days, etc.......speculation rules the roost and it could all come crashing down.

MikeMpls

I didn't say they would. Do not insinuate that I did. They are expected to decline substanatially, but the long-term trend will always be up.

"dirt price tickets" and mileage runs will be around as long as we have a free market.

sxf24

Well, you said business as usual.

The downward trends in airfares that has come to be known as "business as usual" will not return with the steep, upward trend (or stabilization at the current level) in of fuel prices.

Anyone who thinks so is naive.