personnext

First off, I know people are going to ask for "sources" and doubt the validity of the rumors here, and that's fine - that's a given especially for a first time poster.

That said, we'll just have to wait and see. Some things mentioned here will happen, everything mentioned here will probably not happen. These are rumors. Nothing is stated is meant to be taken as fact. This is the airline industry we are talking about - nothing is ever definite.

In 2009, AA's RPMs will be 60% domestic and 40% international (this figure is fact). The goal is to flip that by 2013/14.

Of the hubs, only Miami will see growth in 2009. Dallas, O'Hare and St. Louis will shrink; San Juan, which was just slashed, will remain steady.

Domestic growth will be non-existent in 2009 and new domestic routes will be far and few in between. In fact, currently, no new domestic routes are confirmed to launch at any time in the future. That's probably the first time in AA's history this is the case since deregulation.

Heathrow:

As AA/BA/IB enter into a three-way ATI and eventual trans-Atlantic joint-venture, this will open up more markets between Heathrow and the United States. In the same way that Northwest flies routes like Amsterdam-Boston and Amsterdam-Portland in venture with KLM and Delta will soon launch Paris-Raleigh and Paris-Pittsburgh in venture with Air France, American Airlines will possibly utilize their equipment to fly Heathrow-U.S. JV in venture with British Airways. American Airlines new trans-Atlantic 757s - which will be known as the "75L" - will possibly open new markets for AA/BA.

This might include flights from Heathrow to Baltimore, Columbus, Detroit, and Hartford with 757s. Baltimore-Heathrow would replace British Airways' current widebody service. Detroit-Heathrow is a market that British Airways terminated this past spring. Slots can come from reducing frequency on British Airways short-haul routes. There is no current timetable for this - first AA/BA need ATI and they need to set up a JV.

Timing is a significant issue on this. AA/BA's Heathrow cooperation will not start until ATI and a JV is in place. While AA might be approved in time for summer 2009, they will likely not have enough lead-in time. Heathrow cooperation is unlikely to take full effect until summer 2010.

Europe 75L flying:

The first 757 will be going into conversion any day now. Only one 757 will be converted this year, it will be a "test model." Once that conversion is complete in January, the rest of the conversions can ramp up. AA hopes to have 8-10 complete by August 1st; with all 18 done by the time the summer 2010 timetable rolls around. The first class cabin will have lie-flat, angled beds similar to the 763s, but the PTVs will be built-in. The coach cabin will feature new, slimmer coach seats, which will allow AA to keep the same number of seats in the Y cabin as the current domestic configuration.

They will - with 99.9% certaintiy - be used on Chicago-Manchester, Chicago-Dublin, and probably New York-Barcelona.

They will also very likely launch new service on New York-Manchester, New York-Dublin, New York-Nice, and possibly one other market from JFK (might be a return to Stockholm?).

Since the conversion dates are not firm, it might not be possible to do this all by June 2009. JFK-MAN and JFK-DUB are priority. Boston-Dublin has also been thrown around now that Aer Lingus and American Airlines have ended all codeshares except for some intra-British Isles flights.

Dallas-Madrid:

This looks like a good possibility summer 2009, 763 service. Only new widebody Europe route seriously planned for summer 2009. Madrid will arguably become the most important oneWorld connecting hub in Europe when the joint venture is in full swing, even more so than Heathrow.

Brazil:

AA will likely apply to fly to Fortaleza, Brazil. AA has not decided if they will apply for the July 2009 frequencies or the October 2009 frequencies as of yet. They may also apply for JFK-GIG.

Argentina:

AA plans to begin a third daily flight between Miami and Buenos Aires in November or December of 2009. This flight was supposed to launch this past winter, but was put on hold. It will be a daylight 777 service.

Africa:

An Africa launch is rumored to finally be past just the "idea" stage. The details are still being worked out, but Johannesburg will be the launch destination. The goal is apparently a December 2009 launch. The route will operate from Miami via third city, but that city is to be determined. Lagos is the preferred point, but dealing with Nigerian aviation authorities is a pain, and gaining fifth freedom on Lagos-Johannesburg (which could be important for cargo revenue) is far from guaranteed. The U.S. and Nigeria might have "Open Skies," but Nigeria doesn't really listen.

Another idea being tossed around is operating via Recife, Brazil; and merging Salvador with the new Fortaleza route (assuming AA gets Fortaleza traffic rights). If you look at a map, Recife is actually directly along the path of MIA-JNB and would be quicker than via West Africa. U.S.-Brazil air treaty allows for Brazil-South Africa fifth freedom.

What will make or break American Airlines launching service to Johannesburg is being able to find a stop-over point that can keep the flight profitable. If not, 2012 and the 787-8 couldn't come fast enough!

Eventually, service to Cape Town might be launched as well.

FWAAA

Welcome to Flyertalk.

Interesting first post.

Note: AA ordered 787-9s, not -8s.

Stick around and keep us updated.

malcolmkettering

Was really hoping for LAX-MAD but ^^^^^ nonetheless

Surprised to not see the oft-rumored LIT-NRT but we'll take what we can get.

chj

None of what you've said sounds completely insane, but where have you heard these rumours? Apart from the 75L and the zero-increase in domestic capacity a lot of this is new.

TheAAdmiral

Wow,

Quite the post. Being just a regular passenger that is not familiar with airline lingo, I need to get a better definition of what ATI and JV is. Any help would be appreciated

eireman

Anti Trust and Joint Venture

kebosabi

And once again, AA leaves us West Coast people out of the loop. Where's the coveted LAX-CDG flight or a second late-night LAX-NRT flight that arrives in NRT in the morning that I've always wanted?

MAH4546

Also when AA/IB/BA JV/ATI kicks in, it is very likely that AA's 75L's will replace Iberia's 343s on IAD-MAD and BOS-MAD, along both routes to operate on a more consistent schedule and profitably. Last winter things got so bad that IB was operating the route MAD-IAD-BOS-MAD 3w. The planes were that empty!

Thanks for the info. It makes sense. DFW-MAD is something I have been hearing about for ages. I wouldn't hold my breathe on MIA-JNB, though, until 787s come along.

sts603

Just talked to my friend at AA Corporate in DFW. All of the above is definitely accurate.

Here's what I'm wondering though - with DL and AA now playing the same game - is the transatlantic market about to become super-saturated?

mizzou miles

With DL launching ATL-JNB nonstop (eliminating the now painful stop in DKR) this summer, I dont see how MIA-XXX-JNB would be competitive for connecting traffic

SAA already operates IAD-JNB nonstop as well with great UA connections....

MAH4546

In general, U.S.-South Africa is high fare, but it is still price sensitive because it is a lot of tourist traffic. It is not as a big a disadvantage as it would be in other markets, though I agree it is a disadvantage nonetheless.

I think it is important for AA to get a foothold in Africa ASAP, even it means starting off in a weaker position.

And I just thought that if AA did launch it via REC, just think of all that World Cup traffic! I know, it's only a short event, but still, a nice revenue boost.

Though South Africa rumors have come and gone since 2000. I'll believe it when I see it.

Flight only operates IAD-JNB non-stop; other direction is JNB-DKR-IAD. During the summer, it stops in DKR both ways.

kebosabi

OTOH, this is a good sign. AA is clearly not making any money on domestic service due to LCCs, they're better off focusing their attention on international service.

But I'll continue to whine because the West Coast is left out of the loop

eolesen

DFW-MAD would be very welcome. I can't waste time on the double connect to MIA, and taking IB via ORD usually means a long sit at ORD for those of us not fortunate enough to have more than 2 or 3 flights a day from ORD.

FWAAA

IMO, not buying a dozen 777LRs 3-4 years ago was a big mistake. They would make any point in Africa viable and they would enable AA to connect any hub to any major city in India. Perhaps other destinations as well. Sure, the 787s will enable AA to do those eventually - but AA could already be flying those destinations NOW had they bought the 777LRs.

MAH4546

Based on the info by the OP, combined with what I've heard of AA possibly replacing IB on some MAD-USA flying as soon as this coming winter, we might have a pretty complete list of where the 75Ls are going, if everything comes true:

1) JFK-MAN
2) JFK-DUB
3) JFK-BCN
4) JFK-NCE
5) JFK-ARN

6) ORD-MAN
7) ORD-DUB

8) BOS-DUB
9) BOS-MAD
10) BOS-CDG

11) IAD-MAD

12) LHR-DTW
13) LHR-BWI
14) LHR-CMH
15) LHR-BDL

That leaves just three, and I think AA would keep one as a spare.

If anything, this just demonstrates that AA needs more 75Ls!