HB-IWC

I expect it to be pulled in favor of DXB in case the loads are really too low and DXB can do with the extra seats. What really should have happened, though, is sending the B77W to CPT, which is operating at or near to capacity almost daily, and could certainly fill the B77W better than GRU right now [today, KL791 to GRU left with 154 pax, whereas KL597 to CPT left with 314]. For the summer, the planned 3 weekly MNL rotations are very likely to fill up the aircraft, but I seriously doubt whether the 3 weekly GRU flights will do the same.

hardiwv

As a matter of fact, in January 2008 TAP loads to GIG wre 88% and to GRU 87%.

If KL loads and yields to GRU are so horrible perhaps they should rethink GRU altogether...

Rgs,

HB-IWC

I believe that the potential for both loads and yields is still inherently present on routes between Europe and Brazil, albeit not to the same extent as just after the collapse of RG. I also believe that the real problem KLM is facing, and which is driving down loads, and thereby to a certain extent yields, is the schedule of the flight.

Other airlines, including LH (MUC GRU) and AF (CDG GRU and CDG GIG) are also facing a tougher time with their southbound daylight flights than with their overnight flights (LH FRA GRU, AF CDG GRU and CDG GIG). I personally have no issues with a 12-hour daylight sector, yet a lot of people apparently think differently.

In any case, I believe that the deployment of the B77W to GRU is not necessarily a blessing for that route, as the relative oversupply of seats have the potential of driving yields even further down. Meanwhile, the capacity expansion between Europe and Brazil is not about to end, as the likes of JJ have big plans to add both frequency and capacity on the route.

On a more general note of capacity expansion, it remains to be seen whether the addition of the 2 B77Ws will be indeed beneficial to KLM's yield performance. The airline will next summer operate no less than 8 aircraft with a passenger capacity of over 400 seats as opposed to 5 last year. That may be beneficial in the real peak season, but, in order to fill all these seats in the lower and shoulder seasons, KLM will have no other option than to considerably discount. The practical result will undoubtedly be a relative increase of the number of cheaper economy fares on sale, potentially hurting the airline's bottom line.

hardiwv

I think yields Europe-Brazil are not only inherently present but have actually escalated because of the appreciation of the Brazilian local currency. However, which airlines are managing to "consume" these yields is a different matter. The fact that KLM has a relatively smaller premium cabin means that KLM is not in a good position to compete in GRU as airlines fight for premium passangers there. The configuration of TAM's new B77W (where half the aircraft is used for F and C) shows which market airlines are actually fighting for in GRU - and this is not different from BA, LH, JAL, EK, etc).

LH MUC-GRU will be reverted to red-eye starting already in May/08. In any case, LH is safe in the Brazilian market as Miles and Mores is now integrated in TAM's Fidelidade and we can expect an official announcement of TAM joining Star in July/08.

Other airlines have also opted for diversification in Brazil, as is the case of BA which will start operations LHR-GIG B772 nonstop 3 weekly in October.

I agree the deployment of the B77W in the current configuration is a mistake. Perhaps with a bigger business cabin they could manage to extract better results in GRU.

You can be sure that TAM will continue its aggresive expansion to Europe and in particular in 2008 to the US. 8 new flights Brazil-Europe are planned for 2008/09 (2 already introduced: FRA and MAD), in addition to 4 new flights to the US (GIG-MIA, GIG-JFK, GRU-LAX and the second daily MAO-MIA).

The problem in my opinion is the current lay-out of KL's B77W with an excess supply of Y seats. There is no doubt that it is better to compete for the premium passagenger offering discounted C seats rather than bargain for the discounted holiday pax. It is certainly not good for KLM marketing and image as KLM gets increasingly consolidaded as a "holiday" airline lowering its quality bar.

klm312

GRU has seen an massive increase in flights over a relative short period. The markt started to become saturated. More expansion to come will cause loads en yields to drop even further. The pull back of Varig out of FRA, LHR and MXP should give the other airlines some air, but most likely just temporary.

For KLM there must happen something because this kind of loads can't be very healthy for the flight's performance. An double overnight patern would be much better because then it would be more attractive for business travelers and it would mean that it would fit better onto connections from the far east like PEK and PVG. I know that such an patern eats in the utilization due to the long ground time at GRU, but maybe can KLM use this as operational buffer as this long ground time could be good to overcome delays from earlier that day.

Maybe an other solution would be to introduce another flight in the direct region like GIG,EZE or maybe another north or central Brazilian destination?

After all it's clear that GRU needs less Y seats and more C and F seats. This means that the 77W isn't really the right plane for that mission, with it's massive Y cabin and a mere 35 C seats. The 77E seems to be better with it's smaller Y cabin and I think looking at loads that are mentioned above the massive Y cabin of the 77W will also cause low yields at some other station where it will be deployed. Because of this I'm closely following the news about the 77W and the rumored config change. I was wondering if anybody knows if it will ever happen? If yes, when it will happen and what the config will be. I in person think that it will be an 42C/363Y config but I still hope for an 49C cabin and some kind of Y+ product.

Looking at the comming summer schedule for the 77W, only MNL will be able to fill the 77W in its current configuration. GRU really won't need it as stated above. JFK and DXB are an different story . Both where mentioned a while ago for C class only flights. Than it doesn't really make sense to me why they deploy the plane with an 35 seat C and the largest Y cabin of the fleet on this destination. What other destinations could warrant the deployment of the 77W?


klm312

HB-IWC

I'm not holding my breath that a double overnight pattern will be introduced on the route. It is simply too expensive in terms of utilization. Athough a midnight departure from AMS followed by an early morning return would add just 5 hours to the current roundtrip time, it would eat a complete extra night of utilization thus effectively wiping out one extra aircraft. At this point, KLM cannot make such a move without sacrificing some flights elsewhere in the network.



An extension to GIG or EZE would make sense in case a double overnight pattern were used, yet it wouldn't solve the accute lack of premium seats on the route and would again eat into utilization rates. If and when GIG and/or EZE will be introduced, I believe it will be nonstop.


KIX could fill the aircraft in summer for sure, as could CPT in winter. Equally so, SFO in summer and DEL in winter would work, but those routes already see the full passenger B744 deployed. KUL and SIN are also trunk routes, but they already need more WBC seats as it is right now. JNB has been showing strong loads recently as well, and the B744 was reintroduced on certain days of the week. Finally, there is of course PBM, which is always busy, and the smaller WBC cabin may actually be a benefit over there, and an argument for replacing the current B744 with a B77W on that route.

Escape

hey HB-IWC, can you give me some insight in the loads to the Dutch Antilles, are these lower than PBM?

HB-IWC

Loads to the Antillean Islands are good, but then again, KLM last year reduced capacity there because increased competition. The CUR, AUA and SXM routes are no longer served by B744 but by the smaller MD11. In particular Aruba seems to be mostly full, and one wonders why KLM is not operating daily flights there as it does to CUR.

Escape

the thing is that the prices to these destination have rissen quite a lot during the last year, are you aware if they might expand capacity during the summer?

HB-IWC

As far as I know, there are no plans for an increase in capacity and/or frequency to the Antillean Islands, although, as said, they could well do with daily operations to Aruba.

klm312

Does anybody know when/ if KLM will increase the C cabin of the 77W because then the planes could be deployed to much more existing 777 stations for a few days of the week.

PHKLM

What about MNL?
How do the current loads look like? Might MNL see the ad-hoc deployment of the 77W soon?

klm312

HB-IWC

Have the GRU loadfactors improved or is this negative tend of low loads still continuing?
Also is CPT still showing this very good loadfactors, any chances that this flight will become daily year round?

klm312

PHKLM

CPT will be 5 weekly next summer and revert to 7 weekly next winter. No plans of a daily service year round.
Also, loads to CPT are very healthy at the moment, but for now the 77W will not be deployed on the route.

HB-IWC

Further to my list of last week:


Passenger numbers (revenue + non revenue)
Date - KL791/GRU - KL597/CPT

18FEB - 207 - 314
19FEB - 097 - 303
20FEB - 154 - 314
21FEB - 164 - 329 (KL791/GRU with B77W on this day)
22FEB - 207 - 328
23FEB - 277 - 324
24FEB - 245 - 301 (KL791/GRU with B77W on this day)
25FEB - 198 - 275


I can't understand why KLM is not just deploying the B77W to CPT on the days it's supposed to go to GRU.